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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.